schema: colorful-cardboard.evidence.v1
status: complete
article: /posts/2026-09-03-chaos-rising-vs-perfect-order-sealed-box-value/
researched_at: '2026-09-03T16:16:38-04:00'
data_as_of: '2026-09-03T16:16:38-04:00'
public_author: AiMe
publisher: Derek
experience_packet:
  summary: AiMe joined the exact TCGCSV product and price exports captured 2026-09-03T16:16:38-04:00,
    compared eight sealed SKUs and twelve premium singles, checked the set records
    against the preserved PokemonTCG API responses, and preserved a dated CSV, raw
    response manifest, and original comparison chart before drafting.
  observations:
  - Chaos Rising's booster box market price is $183.22 versus $172.34 for Perfect
    Order, a $10.88 and 6.31% premium; the standard ETBs are $72.24 and $72.26.
  - The six-pack bundles put Chaos Rising at $35.85 and Perfect Order at $41.56, so
    Perfect Order costs $5.71 more for the same format.
  - Chaos Rising's top two tracked singles are Mega Greninja ex 116/086 at $179.82
    and 122/086 at $173.14; Perfect Order's top two are Mega Zygarde ex 124/088 at
    $124.61 and Meowth ex 121/088 at $119.78.
  - 'A $250 budget buys one box plus one bundle at either captured market price: Chaos
    Rising totals $219.07 with $30.93 left, while Perfect Order totals $213.90 with
    $36.10; both combinations contain 42 packs.'
  - The exact price rows contain low and mid listing fields that diverge sharply from
    Market Price, so a single cheap listing is not treated as a floor; the raw response
    bytes and hashes are preserved for reproduction.
  original_artifact: static/images/posts/2026-09-03-chaos-rising-vs-perfect-order-chart.svg
  calculation_artifact: static/data/article-evidence/2026-09-03-chaos-rising-vs-perfect-order.csv
  first_person_claims_supported: true
source_capture:
  raw_manifest: /data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/manifest.json
  raw_manifest_public_path: static/data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/manifest.json
  raw_manifest_public_url: https://colorfulcardboard.com/data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/manifest.json
  public_raw_exports_path: static/data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/
  raw_exports_are_immutable: true
  source_join_key: productId
  captured_at: '2026-09-03T16:16:38-04:00'
  note: Exact response bytes, SHA-256 digests, HTTP statuses, and retrieval timestamps
    are preserved beside this manifest. Current price endpoints were captured immediately
    before this publication attempt with the identifying editorial User-Agent. Nine usable
    source responses are counted below; four attempted official or third-party pages are
    preserved as blocked captures and are listed separately, not used for claims.
  raw_manifest_sha256: 1aada6877b05930713767d465bc3def3b44e19f37903e968852bc7b8ecc790ce
public_evidence:
  bundle_path: static/data/article-evidence/2026-09-03-chaos-rising-vs-perfect-order-sealed-box-value.yaml
  bundle_url: https://colorfulcardboard.com/data/article-evidence/2026-09-03-chaos-rising-vs-perfect-order-sealed-box-value.yaml
  raw_manifest_path: static/data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/manifest.json
  raw_manifest_url: https://colorfulcardboard.com/data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/manifest.json
  raw_exports_path: static/data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/
  raw_export_count: 9
  copy_policy: Served copies of the manifest and nine usable response bytes are byte-for-byte
    copies of the research captures; the served bundle rewrites repository-only raw paths
    to reader-accessible /data/article-evidence/ URLs.
source_count: 9
noncommercial_source_count: 4
blocked_source_count: 4
blocked_sources:
- id: pokemon_chaos_overview
  title: 'Pokemon TCG: Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising expansion overview'
  url: https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/chaos-rising/
  publisher: The Pokemon Company International
  accessed: '2026-09-03'
  kind: official-expansion-overview
  commercial: false
  raw_file: /data/article-evidence/blocked/pokemon-chaos-rising-overview.incapsula.txt
  capture_status: blocked_by_incapsula
  usable: false
- id: pokemon_perfect_overview
  title: 'Pokemon TCG: Mega Evolution—Perfect Order expansion overview'
  url: https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/perfect-order/
  publisher: The Pokemon Company International
  accessed: '2026-09-03'
  kind: official-expansion-overview
  commercial: false
  raw_file: /data/article-evidence/blocked/pokemon-perfect-order-overview.incapsula.txt
  capture_status: blocked_by_incapsula
  usable: false
- id: tcgplayer_chaos_pull_rates
  title: 'Pokemon TCG: Chaos Rising Pull Rates'
  url: https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pok%C3%A9mon-TCG-Chaos-Rising-Pull-Rates/304e8bfc-175a-4d31-93fe-5bb1be11e5d2/
  publisher: TCGplayer
  accessed: '2026-09-03'
  kind: third-party-pull-rate-study
  commercial: true
  raw_file: /data/article-evidence/blocked/tcgplayer-chaos-rising-pull-rates.shell.txt
  capture_status: shell_without_article_body
  usable: false
- id: tcgplayer_perfect_pull_rates
  title: 'Pokemon TCG: Perfect Order Pull Rates'
  url: https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pok%C3%A9mon-TCG-Perfect-Order-Pull-Rates/73148119-ebcb-40b7-84b6-52b3a6d0c631/
  publisher: TCGplayer
  accessed: '2026-09-03'
  kind: third-party-pull-rate-study
  commercial: true
  raw_file: /data/article-evidence/blocked/tcgplayer-perfect-order-pull-rates.shell.txt
  capture_status: shell_without_article_body
  usable: false
sources:
- id: tcgcsv_groups
  title: TCGCSV TCGplayer group directory
  url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/groups
  publisher: TCGCSV
  accessed: '2026-09-03'
  kind: group-metadata
  commercial: true
  raw_file: /data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/tcgcsv-groups.json
- id: tcgcsv_chaos_products
  title: TCGCSV Chaos Rising product export
  url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24655/products
  publisher: TCGCSV
  accessed: '2026-09-03'
  kind: product-export
  commercial: true
  raw_file: /data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/tcgcsv-chaos-rising-products.json
- id: tcgcsv_chaos_prices
  title: TCGCSV Chaos Rising price export
  url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24655/prices
  publisher: TCGCSV
  accessed: '2026-09-03'
  kind: market-data
  commercial: true
  raw_file: /data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/tcgcsv-chaos-rising-prices.json
- id: tcgcsv_perfect_products
  title: TCGCSV Perfect Order product export
  url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24587/products
  publisher: TCGCSV
  accessed: '2026-09-03'
  kind: product-export
  commercial: true
  raw_file: /data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/tcgcsv-perfect-order-products.json
- id: tcgcsv_perfect_prices
  title: TCGCSV Perfect Order price export
  url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24587/prices
  publisher: TCGCSV
  accessed: '2026-09-03'
  kind: market-data
  commercial: true
  raw_file: /data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/tcgcsv-perfect-order-prices.json
- id: pokemontcg_chaos_set
  title: PokemonTCG API Chaos Rising set record
  url: https://api.pokemontcg.io/v2/sets/me4
  publisher: PokemonTCG API
  accessed: '2026-09-03'
  kind: card-database
  commercial: false
  raw_file: /data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/pokemontcg-chaos-rising-set.json
- id: pokemontcg_perfect_set
  title: PokemonTCG API Perfect Order set record
  url: https://api.pokemontcg.io/v2/sets/me3
  publisher: PokemonTCG API
  accessed: '2026-09-03'
  kind: card-database
  commercial: false
  raw_file: /data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/pokemontcg-perfect-order-set.json
- id: pokemontcg_chaos_cards
  title: PokemonTCG API Chaos Rising card records
  url: https://api.pokemontcg.io/v2/cards?q=set.id%3Ame4&pageSize=250
  publisher: PokemonTCG API
  accessed: '2026-09-03'
  kind: card-database
  commercial: false
  raw_file: /data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/pokemontcg-chaos-rising-cards.json
- id: pokemontcg_perfect_cards
  title: PokemonTCG API Perfect Order card records
  url: https://api.pokemontcg.io/v2/cards?q=set.id%3Ame3&pageSize=250
  publisher: PokemonTCG API
  accessed: '2026-09-03'
  kind: card-database
  commercial: false
  raw_file: /data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/pokemontcg-perfect-order-cards.json
claims:
- claim: Chaos Rising is a real Mega Evolution expansion with groupId 24655 and a
    May 22, 2026 release date.
  source_ids: &id001
  - tcgcsv_groups
  - pokemontcg_chaos_set
  article_text: Chaos Rising is the **ME04** expansion, with a [TCGCSV group ID of
    **24655**](https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/groups) and a PokemonTCG API release
    date of **May 22, 2026**.
  sources: *id001
- claim: Perfect Order is a real Mega Evolution expansion with groupId 24587 and a
    March 27, 2026 release date.
  source_ids: &id002
  - tcgcsv_groups
  - pokemontcg_perfect_set
  article_text: Perfect Order is **ME03**, group ID **24587**, released on **March
    27, 2026**.
  sources: *id002
- claim: Chaos Rising has 86 printed cards and 122 total cards; Perfect Order has
    88 printed cards and 124 total cards.
  source_ids: &id003
  - pokemontcg_chaos_set
  - pokemontcg_perfect_set
  article_text: give Chaos Rising **86 printed cards and 122 total cards**.
  sources: *id003
- claim: The standard booster boxes contain 36 packs, standard ETBs contain 9 packs,
    Pokemon Center ETBs contain 11 packs, and booster bundles contain 6 packs.
  source_ids: &id004
  - tcgcsv_chaos_products
  - tcgcsv_perfect_products
  article_text: '**Booster box:** 36 packs. **Booster bundle:** 6 packs. **Standard
    ETB:** 9 packs. **Pokemon Center ETB:** 11 packs.'
  sources: *id004
- claim: All dated market prices and listing fields in the article are September 3,
    2026 TCGCSV snapshots joined by productId.
  source_ids: &id005
  - tcgcsv_chaos_products
  - tcgcsv_chaos_prices
  - tcgcsv_perfect_products
  - tcgcsv_perfect_prices
  article_text: Every market number in this post is a TCGCSV snapshot captured September
    3 and matched to the exact product ID.
  sources: *id005
calculations:
- name: chaos_box_premium_over_perfect
  inputs:
    chaos_box_market: 183.22
    perfect_box_market: 172.34
  formula: (chaos_box_market / perfect_box_market - 1) * 100
  result: 6.31
  unit: percent
- name: booster_box_market_spread
  inputs:
    chaos_box_market: 183.22
    perfect_box_market: 172.34
  formula: chaos_box_market - perfect_box_market
  result: 10.88
  unit: USD
- name: chaos_box_market_per_pack
  inputs:
    market: 183.22
    packs: 36
  formula: market / packs
  result: 5.09
  unit: USD_per_pack
- name: perfect_box_market_per_pack
  inputs:
    market: 172.34
    packs: 36
  formula: market / packs
  result: 4.79
  unit: USD_per_pack
- name: budget_chaos_box_plus_bundle
  inputs:
    box: 183.22
    bundle: 35.85
    budget: 250
  formula: budget - (box + bundle)
  result: 30.93
  unit: USD_left
  packs: 42
- name: budget_perfect_box_plus_bundle
  inputs:
    box: 172.34
    bundle: 41.56
    budget: 250
  formula: budget - (box + bundle)
  result: 36.1
  unit: USD_left
  packs: 42
- name: top_two_chase_total_comparison
  inputs:
    chaos_top_two: 352.96
    perfect_top_two: 244.39
  formula: chaos_top_two - perfect_top_two
  result: 108.57
  unit: USD_difference
  note: not expected value
- name: top_four_chase_total_comparison
  inputs:
    chaos_top_four: 444.25
    perfect_top_four: 353.65999999999997
  formula: chaos_top_four - perfect_top_four
  result: 90.59
  unit: USD_difference
  note: not expected value
- name: standard_etb_price_difference
  inputs:
    chaos: 72.24
    perfect: 72.26
  formula: perfect - chaos
  result: 0.02
  unit: USD_difference
- name: bundle_price_difference
  inputs:
    chaos: 35.85
    perfect: 41.56
  formula: perfect - chaos
  result: 5.71
  unit: USD_difference
decision_framework:
  thresholds_are: subjective budget rules for a collector, not predictions or appraisals
  chaos_rising_booster_box:
    buy: '<= $180'
    selective_buy: '> $180 and <= $195'
    hold: '> $195 and <= $215'
    skip: '> $215'
  perfect_order_booster_box:
    buy: '<= $165'
    selective_buy: '> $165 and <= $180'
    hold: '> $180 and <= $195'
    skip: '> $195'
  standard_etb: buy at or below $70 only for the smaller-ticket collector position;
    otherwise wait
  bundle: buy the cheaper six-pack option only when the price remains below $40; do
    not treat bundle price as a sealed-hold thesis
  risks:
  - reprint or restock pressure
  - Market Price lag and thin sales
  - condition and shipping costs
  - collector demand shifting to newer Mega Evolution sets
assets:
  cover:
    file: static/images/posts/2026-09-03-chaos-rising-vs-perfect-order-sealed-box-value.png
    public_url: /images/posts/2026-09-03-chaos-rising-vs-perfect-order-sealed-box-value.png
    source_url: https://images.scrydex.com/pokemon/me3-124/large
    source_record: /data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/pokemontcg-perfect-order-cards.json
    source_record_id: me3-124
    source_record_field: data[id=me3-124].images.large
    source_record_value: https://images.scrydex.com/pokemon/me3-124/large
    source_record_public: /data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/pokemontcg-perfect-order-cards.json
    acquisition: Downloaded the exact images.large URL returned by the PokemonTCG API record; PNG bytes are preserved without resizing or re-encoding.
    sha256: 7760a9e50bf77244067b3b369f31d4741a8a839614d237197f168fc8e4e4193b
    width: 634
    height: 888
    mime_type: image/png
    description: Real Mega Zygarde ex 124/088 Mega Hyper Rare card art from the PokemonTCG
      API record.
    rights_status: editorial reference image; no ownership claim; source license is not
      specified by the upstream image host; provenance is recorded and the image is not
      presented as an original site illustration.
  chart:
    file: static/images/posts/2026-09-03-chaos-rising-vs-perfect-order-chart.svg
    sha256: 83195cb75c40104055dae66121a5e1c716cc53d3d5e04d0629f8effd7127dd0a
    width: 900
    height: 520
    mime_type: image/svg+xml
    source_data: static/data/article-evidence/2026-09-03-chaos-rising-vs-perfect-order.csv
    source_manifest: /data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/manifest.json
    evidence_status: derived from the immutable captured CSV and raw manifest
    public_url: /images/posts/2026-09-03-chaos-rising-vs-perfect-order-chart.svg
    rights_status: original site-generated SVG; no third-party artwork embedded
    description: Original SVG comparison chart generated from the captured price CSV.
  csv:
    file: static/data/article-evidence/2026-09-03-chaos-rising-vs-perfect-order.csv
    sha256: b7bbaac4271c6119038095bdb1ef2c082e09e80ce6dd6012f787c572a4bc5824
    mime_type: text/csv
    rows: 20
    columns: 13
    source_manifest: /data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/manifest.json
    evidence_status: derived table with exact product IDs joined to immutable raw price and product exports
    public_url: /data/article-evidence/2026-09-03-chaos-rising-vs-perfect-order.csv
    rights_status: original site-generated data table; source URLs and raw manifest are recorded
price_snapshot:
  as_of: '2026-09-03T16:16:38-04:00'
  captured_at: '2026-09-03T16:16:38-04:00'
  source: TCGCSV exact product and price exports joined by productId
  raw_manifest: /data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/manifest.json
  rows:
  - item: Chaos Rising Booster Box
    set: Chaos Rising
    product_id: 684444
    format: Booster Box
    market_price: 183.22
    low_price: 161.64
    mid_price: 239.95
    source: tcgcsv_chaos_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24655/prices
    packs: 36
    market_per_pack: 5.09
  - item: Perfect Order Booster Box
    set: Perfect Order
    product_id: 672394
    format: Booster Box
    market_price: 172.34
    low_price: 163.67
    mid_price: 221.99
    source: tcgcsv_perfect_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24587/prices
    packs: 36
    market_per_pack: 4.79
  - item: Chaos Rising Booster Bundle
    set: Chaos Rising
    product_id: 684456
    format: Booster Bundle
    market_price: 35.85
    low_price: 5.0
    mid_price: 44.95
    source: tcgcsv_chaos_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24655/prices
    packs: 6
    market_per_pack: 5.98
  - item: Perfect Order Booster Bundle
    set: Perfect Order
    product_id: 672396
    format: Booster Bundle
    market_price: 41.56
    low_price: 30.02
    mid_price: 44.0
    source: tcgcsv_perfect_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24587/prices
    packs: 6
    market_per_pack: 6.93
  - item: Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Box
    set: Chaos Rising
    product_id: 684450
    format: Elite Trainer Box
    market_price: 72.24
    low_price: 60.0
    mid_price: 80.0
    source: tcgcsv_chaos_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24655/prices
    packs: 9
    market_per_pack: 8.03
  - item: Perfect Order Elite Trainer Box
    set: Perfect Order
    product_id: 672401
    format: Elite Trainer Box
    market_price: 72.26
    low_price: 57.98
    mid_price: 79.99
    source: tcgcsv_perfect_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24587/prices
    packs: 9
    market_per_pack: 8.03
  - item: Chaos Rising Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box
    set: Chaos Rising
    product_id: 684452
    format: Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box
    market_price: 135.96
    low_price: 125.0
    mid_price: 165.0
    source: tcgcsv_chaos_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24655/prices
    packs: 11
    market_per_pack: 12.36
  - item: Perfect Order Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box
    set: Perfect Order
    product_id: 672404
    format: Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box
    market_price: 122.75
    low_price: 115.95
    mid_price: 144.94
    source: tcgcsv_perfect_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24587/prices
    packs: 11
    market_per_pack: 11.16
  - item: Mega Greninja ex - 116/086
    set: Chaos Rising
    product_id: 693517
    format: Special Illustration Rare
    market_price: 179.82
    low_price: 178.0
    mid_price: 210.88
    source: tcgcsv_chaos_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24655/prices
  - item: Mega Greninja ex - 122/086
    set: Chaos Rising
    product_id: 693518
    format: Mega Hyper Rare
    market_price: 173.14
    low_price: 155.99
    mid_price: 192.68
    source: tcgcsv_chaos_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24655/prices
  - item: Cinccino ex - 119/086
    set: Chaos Rising
    product_id: 693465
    format: Special Illustration Rare
    market_price: 55.45
    low_price: 49.0
    mid_price: 62.6
    source: tcgcsv_chaos_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24655/prices
  - item: Mega Dragalge ex - 118/086
    set: Chaos Rising
    product_id: 693510
    format: Special Illustration Rare
    market_price: 35.84
    low_price: 34.0
    mid_price: 41.27
    source: tcgcsv_chaos_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24655/prices
  - item: Mega Floette ex - 117/086
    set: Chaos Rising
    product_id: 693513
    format: Special Illustration Rare
    market_price: 30.75
    low_price: 26.99
    mid_price: 34.43
    source: tcgcsv_chaos_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24655/prices
  - item: AZ's Tranquility - 120/086
    set: Chaos Rising
    product_id: 693451
    format: Special Illustration Rare
    market_price: 25.41
    low_price: 23.4
    mid_price: 29.06
    source: tcgcsv_chaos_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24655/prices
  - item: Mega Zygarde ex - 124/088
    set: Perfect Order
    product_id: 684339
    format: Mega Hyper Rare
    market_price: 124.61
    low_price: 118.98
    mid_price: 140.0
    source: tcgcsv_perfect_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24587/prices
  - item: Meowth ex - 121/088
    set: Perfect Order
    product_id: 684342
    format: Special Illustration Rare
    market_price: 119.78
    low_price: 106.05
    mid_price: 134.0
    source: tcgcsv_perfect_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24587/prices
  - item: Mega Zygarde ex - 120/088
    set: Perfect Order
    product_id: 684338
    format: Special Illustration Rare
    market_price: 58.16
    low_price: 54.99
    mid_price: 64.0
    source: tcgcsv_perfect_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24587/prices
  - item: Mega Clefable ex - 119/088
    set: Perfect Order
    product_id: 684385
    format: Special Illustration Rare
    market_price: 51.11
    low_price: 48.0
    mid_price: 57.42
    source: tcgcsv_perfect_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24587/prices
  - item: Rosa's Encouragement - 123/088
    set: Perfect Order
    product_id: 684392
    format: Special Illustration Rare
    market_price: 47.43
    low_price: 44.22
    mid_price: 53.68
    source: tcgcsv_perfect_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24587/prices
  - item: Mega Starmie ex - 118/088
    set: Perfect Order
    product_id: 684362
    format: Special Illustration Rare
    market_price: 41.39
    low_price: 39.0
    mid_price: 47.59
    source: tcgcsv_perfect_prices
    source_url: https://tcgcsv.com/tcgplayer/3/24587/prices
intent:
  query: Chaos Rising versus Perfect Order sealed box value at same-day TCGCSV market
    prices
  distinct_value: Uses immutable same-day exact-product exports and a fixed $250 budget
    to separate chase-card context from sealed-box entry rules, rather than presenting
    a generic set review or an expected-value claim.
artifacts:
- type: chart
  path: static/images/posts/2026-09-03-chaos-rising-vs-perfect-order-chart.svg
  source_data: static/data/article-evidence/2026-09-03-chaos-rising-vs-perfect-order.csv
  description: Original SVG comparison chart generated from the captured price CSV.
  sha256: 83195cb75c40104055dae66121a5e1c716cc53d3d5e04d0629f8effd7127dd0a
- type: table
  path: static/data/article-evidence/2026-09-03-chaos-rising-vs-perfect-order.csv
  source_data: /data/article-evidence/raw/2026-09-03-201638Z/manifest.json
  description: Dated CSV table of selected sealed and single price rows.
  sha256: b7bbaac4271c6119038095bdb1ef2c082e09e80ce6dd6012f787c572a4bc5824