Charizard ex SIR: Buy the Dip or Keep Waiting?

Charizard ex Special Illustration Rare from Obsidian Flames finally got cheap enough that the question is not stupid anymore.

That is the cleanest way to say it.

On July 9, 2026, the live TCGCSV feed has Charizard ex 223/197 at $117.00 market price. The same card was $139.58 on June 10, so the raw market price is down 16.2% across our tracked window. PokemonTCG’s own card data is basically in the same neighborhood, showing $116.99 market for the holofoil version when I pulled it this morning. TCGCSV also shows a low of $86.51, a mid of $125.32, and a direct low of $91.81.

That is not a crash. It is not a dead-card chart. It is a high-profile modern Charizard bleeding from a stretched level while the sealed box keeps holding firm.

The buy call is more interesting than it was two weeks ago. It is also still not an all-clear.

My current line: buy clean near-mint copies under $105, hold if you already own it below $120, skip raw copies above $130 unless you are buying for the binder and do not care about short-term mark-to-market pain.

If you want the card because you love the art, I get it. The lava-lit pose works, the Tera look is loud without being unreadable, and Charizard still moves casual buyers in a way most Pokemon simply do not. If you want the card as a capital allocation decision, we need to be colder than that.

The current price board

Here is the July 9 snapshot that matters:

That table tells the whole story. The SIR is no longer priced like everyone is sprinting at it. The sealed box, covered separately in my Obsidian Flames booster box hold-or-skip breakdown, is still acting like collectors respect the set. The tension between those two charts is the opportunity and the risk.

A $397.90 booster box now costs about 3.4 raw Charizard ex SIR copies. On June 25, the ratio was about 3.2 copies. On June 10, it was about 2.8 copies. In plain English: the sealed product has become more expensive relative to its best pull.

That is great if you own sealed. It is not great if you are trying to justify ripping boxes. For singles buyers, though, it means the lead card is starting to separate from the sealed premium. That is where individual-card buying can make sense.

Why the dip happened

The lazy explanation is “modern cards always fall.” That is half true and not useful.

Modern singles usually soften after hype cycles because supply keeps surfacing. Someone opens old sealed. Someone grades a stack. Someone sells a binder to rotate into the newest set. The top card may be scarce inside packs, but the market does not care about pack odds once enough copies are already floating around.

Charizard ex 223/197 also has a very specific problem: it is famous, but it is not alone.

Obsidian Flames has four English Charizard ex versions that show up in current data. The Double Rare is around $5.57, the Ultra Rare is around $25.53, the Hyper Rare is around $41.18, and the SIR is $117.00. That gives collectors cheaper ways to scratch the same Charizard itch. A casual buyer who wants an Obsidian Flames Charizard can spend $25 to $41 instead of paying $117.

That does not kill the SIR. The best art usually wins long-term. But it does cap the panic premium. When buyers have cheaper Charizard options from the same set, the SIR has to earn its spread through art, condition, scarcity, and collector prestige.

The other pressure is attention. The modern Pokemon market has been crowded all year. Prismatic Evolutions has the massive Eevee chase. Surging Sparks has Pikachu momentum. Mega Evolution era products like Ascended Heroes, Perfect Order, and Chaos Rising keep stealing oxygen. A 2023 Charizard can still matter, but it has to compete for budget against newer headline cards every week.

That is why the slide from $139.58 to $117.00 does not shock me. It is the market saying, “Good card, wrong price.”

My buy, hold, skip thresholds

Here is how I would treat raw near-mint copies right now:

At $117, the card sits in the annoying middle. It is not expensive enough for me to yell skip. It is not cheap enough for me to call it an automatic buy.

The difference between $117 and $100 matters more than people want to admit. On one copy, it is only $17. On a five-copy position, it is $85. If you are grading, shipping, insuring, and taking submission risk, that $17 per copy can be the difference between a real plan and a spreadsheet fantasy.

My preferred move is simple: set saved searches around $100 to $105, then wait for a clean copy from a seller with actual photos. Do not chase blurry listing photos because the chart pulled back. Bad condition at a good price is not a deal. It is just a future complaint.

Raw copy or graded copy?

This card is exactly the kind of modern single where grading discipline matters.

A clean PSA 10 can separate meaningfully from raw price because Charizard collectors still pay for slab certainty. But the word “clean” is doing heavy lifting. Modern SIRs are not magically perfect. Centering can be off. Texture can hide small surface issues. White dots on dark corners can turn a hopeful 10 into a very normal 9.

If you are buying raw with the plan to grade, I would be stricter than normal:

• Centering: avoid obvious left-right imbalance. Do not tell yourself PSA will be generous because you want the card.
• Back corners: check all four. Tiny whitening on a black-backed scan is easy to miss.
• Surface: ask for angled photos if the listing is expensive. Texture does not protect you from scratches.
• Seller history: I want real feedback and enough card sales to trust the packing.
• All-in cost: card price plus tax, shipping, grading fee, shipping both ways, and time.

At $117 raw, a grading play only makes sense if the copy has a credible PSA 10 shot. A PSA 9 modern Charizard is not useless, but it often behaves like a nicer raw copy with extra friction. You paid the grading fee, waited, took the risk, and may not get paid enough for the trouble.

For most collectors, the better move is buying the best raw copy you can afford and being honest about why you want it. Binder copy? Great. Long-term hold? Fine. Grade-and-flip? Only if the condition is strong enough to justify the extra steps.

If you want a broader framework for deciding when a card is actually worth grading, pair this with the site’s Pokemon cards worth grading for profit guide. The math matters more than the Charizard logo.

The bull case

The bull case starts with the obvious thing: it is still Charizard.

That sounds lazy until you look at how buyer behavior actually works. Charizard has permanent search demand, gift demand, nostalgia demand, and casual collector demand. A lot of Pokemon cards need a long explanation. Charizard does not. That matters when you eventually need liquidity.

The SIR also has the right kind of set identity. Obsidian Flames may not be the strongest Scarlet & Violet era set overall, but it has a clear headline. Future buyers will remember it as the Charizard set. That kind of simple label helps singles and sealed product stay legible years later.

There is also a relative-value argument. The Hyper Rare at $41.18 is cheaper, but I do not think it has the same collector ceiling. The Ultra Rare at $25.53 is a perfectly fine budget copy, but budget copies rarely become the card everyone wishes they bought. The SIR is the version that carries the premium story.

The best-case path from here is not complicated. The card stabilizes around $105 to $115, weak sellers leave, sealed Obsidian Flames stays firm, and Charizard attention rotates back when collectors start comparing older Scarlet & Violet chase cards against newer Mega-era prices. If that happens, the SIR does not need to explode. A move back toward $135 to $150 would already be a useful return from a disciplined entry.

That is why I do not hate buying under $105. You are not betting on a miracle. You are betting that a recognizable Charizard SIR from a known mainline set can stop sliding and retest its old range.

The bear case

The bear case is just as real.

First, the chart is still making lower numbers. The card touched $116.76 on July 7 in our feed, then sat at $116.88 on July 8 and $117.00 on July 9. That is not a reversal. That is a pause. A pause can become a base, but it can also become another shelf before the next leg down.

Second, modern supply is annoying. Copies do not disappear the way vintage cards disappear. Every time the price bounces, more sellers get tempted. Every time someone needs cash for the newest product, another copy hits the market. That supply pressure can keep a card pinned longer than impatient buyers expect.

Third, the broader card market has better momentum stories right now. Moonbreon is a different price tier entirely, but it remains the modern grail comparison. Prismatic Evolutions’ Umbreon ex SIR is still above $1,500 in our current feed. Against those giants, a $117 Charizard can look reasonable, but it can also look less urgent. Money flows toward the loudest winners first.

Fourth, Obsidian Flames sealed strength can become a problem for singles buyers if it encourages bad ripping math. If boxes stay near $400 while the SIR sits near $117, rational openers should slow down. Less opening can support supply, yes, but it also means the singles market depends more on existing holders choosing not to sell. That is not the same thing as fresh demand.

If the card loses $110 cleanly, I would expect the market to test $100. If $100 fails, the next real emotional level is the $85 to $90 zone because that lines up near current low-listing territory. I am not predicting that path. I am respecting it.

What I would actually buy

If I were shopping this card today, I would not buy the cheapest listing blindly.

My target would be a near-mint raw copy with clear front and back photos at $100 to $105 before tax and shipping, or a slightly higher price if the copy is visibly cleaner than the market. I would rather pay $108 for a sharp copy than $95 for one with corner whitening and mystery glare.

I would avoid “NM” listings with only stock images. Stock images are fine for bulk cards. They are not fine for a triple-digit modern chase where condition is the whole point. If I cannot inspect the actual card, I am not paying collector-card money.

I would also avoid overpaying for the word Charizard. That sounds obvious, but it is exactly how people get trapped. They see a dip from $140 to $117 and treat it like a sale. A sale only matters if the new price is below fair value. Sometimes the old price was just too high.

For a personal collection, I am comfortable buying one copy in the current range if the condition is strong and I want the card long term. For an investment position, I want better. I want the entry to do some work for me.

That means under $105 or I wait.

Final call

Charizard ex SIR at $117.00 is finally worth paying attention to again. The card is down enough that the old easy skip is gone. It is still not cheap enough for lazy buying.

My call:

• Buy clean raw copies under $105.
• Hold if you already own a solid copy around $100 to $120.
• Skip rough copies at any price that only looks cheap because the photos are bad.
• Skip above $130 unless the card starts reclaiming higher market prices.
• Sell or trim into a fast move above $150 if you bought near $100 and do not care about keeping it.

This is a card pick, not a sealed thesis. If you want the box math, read the Obsidian Flames booster box piece. If you want the single, stop staring at the old $140 price like it proves a bargain exists. The current number is better. The actual buy zone is lower.

Be patient, be picky, and do not let the word Charizard bully you into paying for someone else’s exit.